I never do this (because it’s irresponsibly luck-driven) - but, I’m calling near term bottom-tick here on NDX, NKY & other major DM equity indices that have been getting crushed and currently seeing heavy downside. And yes, maybe even calling for Russell 2K top as well, although that seems to have already happened - so maybe just R2K further downside.
Why?
Because this has been a (mostly systematic flow driven) JPY carry trade unwind + short covering that has been driving the post-Jul 11 yentervention ignited (& subsequently assisted) NDX downside.
And so, this is actually a “USDJPY 152 support level will hold (for now)” call - given how resilient of an upside ceiling USDJPY 152 was - and sub 152 is when you really start to hit the shorts’ (once profitable/now fleeting) entry points.
Either way - THE most important green & red blinking ticker in global macro markets in the immediate term is: USDJPY at 152.
USDJPY is the “CrowdStrike of global macro markets” right now. The single point of failure from which basically every carry trade’s long side of the trade (be it USD, AUD, MXN etc) shorts against. Hence the widespread spillover effects we’ve been seeing.
Time stamp it in case I’m right. Forget I ever said this when I’m wrong.
And never ever actually trade off of this/me.
Also - I’m mid-recording a market note video on this right now, coming later today in light of USDJPY → 152 (part of the new video content experiment) - but just flagging this now for time sensitivity sake
Another great post, thx. Read it after watching dollar yen bounce off 152 ... great call, though I think NDX has a bit more downside in this current move. We'll see that's what makes a market
Another great post, thx. Read it after watching dollar yen bounce off 152 ... great call, though I think NDX has a bit more downside in this current move. We'll see that's what makes a market