In the most recent (3-27) article about the trading/export "forces" between China and Japan and therefore the importance of RMB/JPY, as well as RMB/USD & JPY/USD, you also touched upon JPY volatility (below) -- now a ridiculous, seemingly out of control ¥151.63 = $1 (@13:50 jst). Thanks for the careful descriptions of trading data.
Based on the above and the snippets below, is JPY long really a possibility? Isn't it more like MoF whack-a-mole? And how long is "long"? A month? 2 days? (Haha -- only half-joking)
You wrote: … going long JPY here with a tight stop loss seems like a very asymmetric risk
… and Japan MOF steps in to yentervene at USDJPY higher highs each time, then we may get some potentially extreme volatility as USDJPY breaks 152+ for a few handles north before getting smacked downwards, then we can expect a period of potentially wild cross-asset volatility
"Three of the largest sovereigns and their rate and currency policies are aligned for going long JPY: 1). 2). 3). …”
Hey Weston, I've been missing you during this most recent mayhem. Trust all is well. Love to see a post like this one updated to dollar yen busting thru not just 152, but also 153, and your thinking on the next moves in yentervention. Does MOF let it get above 155, 160? Love your thinking, hopefully I will get to see more of it soon.
In the most recent (3-27) article about the trading/export "forces" between China and Japan and therefore the importance of RMB/JPY, as well as RMB/USD & JPY/USD, you also touched upon JPY volatility (below) -- now a ridiculous, seemingly out of control ¥151.63 = $1 (@13:50 jst). Thanks for the careful descriptions of trading data.
Based on the above and the snippets below, is JPY long really a possibility? Isn't it more like MoF whack-a-mole? And how long is "long"? A month? 2 days? (Haha -- only half-joking)
You wrote: … going long JPY here with a tight stop loss seems like a very asymmetric risk
… and Japan MOF steps in to yentervene at USDJPY higher highs each time, then we may get some potentially extreme volatility as USDJPY breaks 152+ for a few handles north before getting smacked downwards, then we can expect a period of potentially wild cross-asset volatility
"Three of the largest sovereigns and their rate and currency policies are aligned for going long JPY: 1). 2). 3). …”
Cheers
Hey Weston, I've been missing you during this most recent mayhem. Trust all is well. Love to see a post like this one updated to dollar yen busting thru not just 152, but also 153, and your thinking on the next moves in yentervention. Does MOF let it get above 155, 160? Love your thinking, hopefully I will get to see more of it soon.