Something like that is also what I thought. Surely the algos cannot “just move”. That said, Weston’s real time tracking showed just how fast they move (billions in no time) and then back again.
Set against this backdrop, if obvious, is the importance of understanding your trade and being carefully positioned.
Thx to Weston for doing this in the middle of the night.
Your wife, if semi-awake, should charge you ¥50 for each F-bomb! ;)
Yes I think Weston’s point is well taken. Markets have become “financialized” and distorted beyond the limits of being useful as reflections of economic realities. Billions in capital reflexively ricochet around like pinballs in some crazy AI driven ephemeral world of an algorithmic machine. Red and green blinking tickers
To add a personal algo perspective using the Aussie SPI index futures - at about 9pm Sydney time (on the 21st) the Aussie SPI made a perfect algo level and the Nikkei (cash - CFD) made a high for the night. The SPI then ticked up +1, then relaxed to another algo level! - which held three times over the Yen/Nikkei spiking shennanigans (Nikkei high held during that too), and the third time support (about 2am Sydney time) correlated to the Nikkei low for the night.
THEN the Aussie SPI rallied to a new high - sort of algo level (will correlate it today) yet it's high correlated exactly to the USDJPY session low about 4:30am Sydney time (the Nikkei now uncorrelated and kept away from its highs or lows).
Irrespective of number, or release time or leaking of numbers etc. For the SPI at 6:35pm Sydney time the algo started the night was pre-determined : The 9pm the high (for both SPI and Nikkei) the fade level for the SPIx3 and therefore the NIkkei low was pre-determined, which then pre-determined the new SPI high, and now the USDJPY low at the SPI high.
Obvious too but must be said - this is not saying that the SPI is one ring that rules them all. It is just easier to see this stuff with, and the index I know. The other indices last night weren't as cleanly correlated - volatile v SPI.
A little Tradingview trick to avoid constantly having to invert the scale is I have a 0-USDJPY ticker in my watchlist. Makes it go the same 'direction' as 6J1! and European pairs like EURUSD while keeping the more familiar whole numbers. Or you can do 0-6J1! if you always go the other way.
Bloomberg reporting data was leaked before official release time
Something like that is also what I thought. Surely the algos cannot “just move”. That said, Weston’s real time tracking showed just how fast they move (billions in no time) and then back again.
Set against this backdrop, if obvious, is the importance of understanding your trade and being carefully positioned.
Thx to Weston for doing this in the middle of the night.
Your wife, if semi-awake, should charge you ¥50 for each F-bomb! ;)
Yes I think Weston’s point is well taken. Markets have become “financialized” and distorted beyond the limits of being useful as reflections of economic realities. Billions in capital reflexively ricochet around like pinballs in some crazy AI driven ephemeral world of an algorithmic machine. Red and green blinking tickers
Absolutely! Being at the mercy of algorithmic trading, pods and HFs — is messed up. Thus my comment about careful positioning.
For us (in Japan), timely Across the Spread info. helps to safeguard what we’ve built up.
Yes! I love this.
To add a personal algo perspective using the Aussie SPI index futures - at about 9pm Sydney time (on the 21st) the Aussie SPI made a perfect algo level and the Nikkei (cash - CFD) made a high for the night. The SPI then ticked up +1, then relaxed to another algo level! - which held three times over the Yen/Nikkei spiking shennanigans (Nikkei high held during that too), and the third time support (about 2am Sydney time) correlated to the Nikkei low for the night.
THEN the Aussie SPI rallied to a new high - sort of algo level (will correlate it today) yet it's high correlated exactly to the USDJPY session low about 4:30am Sydney time (the Nikkei now uncorrelated and kept away from its highs or lows).
Irrespective of number, or release time or leaking of numbers etc. For the SPI at 6:35pm Sydney time the algo started the night was pre-determined : The 9pm the high (for both SPI and Nikkei) the fade level for the SPIx3 and therefore the NIkkei low was pre-determined, which then pre-determined the new SPI high, and now the USDJPY low at the SPI high.
Obvious too but must be said - this is not saying that the SPI is one ring that rules them all. It is just easier to see this stuff with, and the index I know. The other indices last night weren't as cleanly correlated - volatile v SPI.
Anyway. Red pill moment for some maybe.
Bloomberg saying some banks got the data early https://x.com/Econ_Parker/status/1826380689673257372/photo/1
A little Tradingview trick to avoid constantly having to invert the scale is I have a 0-USDJPY ticker in my watchlist. Makes it go the same 'direction' as 6J1! and European pairs like EURUSD while keeping the more familiar whole numbers. Or you can do 0-6J1! if you always go the other way.
Is there any "beautiful deleveraging" scenario you can see where 142 breaks down but in a non-wrecking ball way?