Japan's Big 3 General Insurance Co's have direct exposure to pay huge and growing fire claims in California, and are liquidating their portfolio assets to do so: USTs, UK Gilts, equities and more.
Thanks Weston - you are the GOAT at seeing the "obvious" (to me - after reading your insight) that no one else sees. Always impresses me. Hope 2025 is a cracker year for you. Cheers.
Are china's yields intertwined in this or just their own idiosyncratic issues? I notice it went almost mirror image of US yields starting 12/6 with the first leg of the treasury selloff.
Are you referring to 🇨🇳10Y CGB yields? Which were on a steady decline all year of like -50bps over the first 11 months, and then suddenly and sharply plunging another -50bps in the final 1 month of '24? So, yea - incredible move in Dec, but as far as relevance to this particular LA fires vs DM long end yields price action thing, doesn't seem to be involved in this.
What you're seeing at that early Dec moment is CGB10Y yield flirt with, and then finally break below psychological 2% to print a 1% yield handle, which opened the floodgates for CGB yields to plunge deep into the 1% handle, and then the US10Y move in tandem over that period is a "separate" concurring surge in USDCNH (CNY) about to rip thru that Oct'22 ~7.35 level to new decade+ highs, which is where the US10Y price action mirroring comes from. So, CGB 10Ys break a very key level as its own matter, and then at the same time US yields ripping dollar yuan higher. That said, if you chart out USDCNH and CGB 10Y yields (inverse) over that period - they do move parallel.
That’s genuinely awesome and made my day to hear! Keep it up - both the big picture clarity search efforts as well as the questioning / sharing of observations
No but I criminally smuggled in some Nyquil AND Dayquil, so maybe its that cocktail + the added element of those now being "illegal substances" in 🇯🇵 that are now being used (or, "abused") that set me off on a rant.
Happy New Years Gregg, hope you had a pleasant oshogatsu
"Regarding the overseas economy, one of the issues to look at is the policies of the new U.S. administration and their impact on the U.S., global and Japanese economy. Continuous monitoring will be warranted, but the inaugural address next week will give us an idea on the broad direction of policies the new administration will pursue."
-BOJ Deputy Gov Himino earlier this week
So, he's quite the contrary to you- as apparently Jan 20 is when clarity and predicting abilities will come, according to Himino-san.
I happen to lean more towards your stance for the record
Thanks Weston - you are the GOAT at seeing the "obvious" (to me - after reading your insight) that no one else sees. Always impresses me. Hope 2025 is a cracker year for you. Cheers.
Are china's yields intertwined in this or just their own idiosyncratic issues? I notice it went almost mirror image of US yields starting 12/6 with the first leg of the treasury selloff.
Are you referring to 🇨🇳10Y CGB yields? Which were on a steady decline all year of like -50bps over the first 11 months, and then suddenly and sharply plunging another -50bps in the final 1 month of '24? So, yea - incredible move in Dec, but as far as relevance to this particular LA fires vs DM long end yields price action thing, doesn't seem to be involved in this.
What you're seeing at that early Dec moment is CGB10Y yield flirt with, and then finally break below psychological 2% to print a 1% yield handle, which opened the floodgates for CGB yields to plunge deep into the 1% handle, and then the US10Y move in tandem over that period is a "separate" concurring surge in USDCNH (CNY) about to rip thru that Oct'22 ~7.35 level to new decade+ highs, which is where the US10Y price action mirroring comes from. So, CGB 10Ys break a very key level as its own matter, and then at the same time US yields ripping dollar yuan higher. That said, if you chart out USDCNH and CGB 10Y yields (inverse) over that period - they do move parallel.
Good observation either way though
Yep, that's the one. Thanks. I'm starting to see these cross asset linkages better!
That’s genuinely awesome and made my day to hear! Keep it up - both the big picture clarity search efforts as well as the questioning / sharing of observations
Were you/ Are you on caffeine? That was a lot! 2025 will be full of surprises. Look forward to your observations.
No but I criminally smuggled in some Nyquil AND Dayquil, so maybe its that cocktail + the added element of those now being "illegal substances" in 🇯🇵 that are now being used (or, "abused") that set me off on a rant.
Happy New Years Gregg, hope you had a pleasant oshogatsu
All good over here. Can’t predict after Jan 20, though.
"Regarding the overseas economy, one of the issues to look at is the policies of the new U.S. administration and their impact on the U.S., global and Japanese economy. Continuous monitoring will be warranted, but the inaugural address next week will give us an idea on the broad direction of policies the new administration will pursue."
-BOJ Deputy Gov Himino earlier this week
So, he's quite the contrary to you- as apparently Jan 20 is when clarity and predicting abilities will come, according to Himino-san.
I happen to lean more towards your stance for the record