Across The Spread

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Calling NDX & NKY (USDJPY) Bottom Tick Here
I never do this (because it’s irresponsibly luck-driven) - but, I’m calling near term bottom-tick here on NDX, NKY & other major DM equity indic…
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Weston Nakamura
1
Announcement: Video Content Returns To Across The Spread!
Unveiling the next chapter of Across The Spread - integrating video with written content, as well as an overview of market themes
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Weston Nakamura
5
19:19
There Never Was A “Trump Trade” In July 2024 - It’s A JPY Trade
This is a yentervened JPY short squeeze on carry trades and prevailing price trends (crowded positions), with global cross-asset spillovers: NDX…
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Weston Nakamura
2
A Post-CPI Yentervention?
The case for why the sharpest intraday drop on USDJPY since Oct’22 underway is yentervention - as well as why it is NOT, and why the distinction matters…
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Weston Nakamura
2

June 2024

Markets Are Yenterventilating - Keep Calm (For Now)
Back at prior yentervention levels on USDJPY. What this means- and how to potentially trade it.
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Weston Nakamura
9
Short France / Long USTs: Japan Institutions Moving Global Bond Markets
French bonds blow up Japan portfolios forcing a blind rush into USTs. This isn’t “demand” for Treasuries, or US-related at all - therefore USTs can be…
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Weston Nakamura
2
June BOJ: What's Really Happening
A differentiated assessment and take on Bank of Japan's very strange and shady policy announcement.
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Weston Nakamura
1
Thoughts and commentary heading into June Bank of Japan
Policy is already “out” via media - scale down JGB buying, potentially into “QT” territory, but structurally unable to make decisive JGB buying changes…
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Weston Nakamura
3
Is Japan Dumping French Debt?
Probably. Explains the sudden “demand” at 10Y UST auction, USD strength, weak EUR. Don’t credit the U.S., blame Macron.
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Weston Nakamura
3
Landmines of Market Moving Catalysts Everywhere This Week
JGBs have been driving JPY and USTs since yentervention. US CPI, FOMC, BOJ, JGB buy Ops, JGB quarterly futures expiry - each with global market moving…
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Weston Nakamura
2
Heads Up: Major Carry Trade Unwind - Mex Peso
Crowded long MXNJPY -5% and falling contributes to JPY strength, with further implications on downside for risk assets, crude oil, and CTA positioning.
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Weston Nakamura
4

May 2024

JGBs Flash A New Type Of Warning Signal For Global Bond Markets
For the first time, Bank of Japan was not able to buy as many JGBs as offered to markets. This is concerning - here is why.
© 2024 Weston Nakamura
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